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   For 2015, the National Institute of Development Administration's GDP grownth forecast is 5.4 per cent. Domestic demand is expected to rebound significantly. Public and private investments are projected to grow by 8.0 and 11.2 per cent. Private consumption is expected to increase at 4.6 per cent. This recovery process is the result of an equlibrium adjustment. The delayed investment projects and durable-goods consumption in 2014 will come back in 2015 when the politial situation is stabilised.

   "We expect export expansion in 2015 because of improvements in the global market. The higher global demand could increase Thailand's export value in 2015 by 6.8 per cent. Next, we project Thailand's headline inflation rate to end this year at 2.1 per cent, and reach 2.6 per cent next year. World crude oil prices are expected to stabilise because of low demand from China."

   In addition, the baht is expected to weaken next year to around 33-34 to the US dollar. In summary, the Thai economy is expected to rebound in 2015 from the adjustment in the equilibrium of consumption and investment. However, the global economic outlook and recovery process of the US economy are currently the most important risks to the Thai economy, which needs triggering factors to pull away from the effects of the political crisis. Therefore, the development of the world economy should be closely monitored to prepare for unexpected shocks that may hinder the local economic recovery process.

     The Commerce Ministry reported that August exports fell to a 32-month low as the weak global economy brought lower-than-expected demand. Exports slumped 7.4% year-on-year in August to US$ 8.9 biliion following a fall of 0.85% in July, with shipments in the first 8 months shrinking 1.36% to US$ 51 billion. Imports fell for a 14th straight month in August, plunging 14.2% to US$7.8 billion.

     The global recession and the Euro-Zone crisis has had a huge impact on the consumer sentiment towards jewellery, especially in North America and Europe. However, significant grownth in the jewellery market was witnessed in developing regions including Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Increasing demand has been recorded due to growing per capita income levels in developing countries such as India, China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the UAE. The growth in urban population coupled with rising awareness about different types of jewellery is expected to propel gems and jewellery demand in these countries through 2019. Gold jewellery dominated the global gems and jewellery market in 2013, in revenue terms. However, during the forecast period, diamond, platinum and costume jewellery are also expected to gain market share.

     According to "Global Gems & Jewelry Market Forecast & Opportunities, 2019", the United States continues to be the largest gems and jewellery market worldwide. The USA is also the largest global consumer of diamond jewellery, However, regionally, Asia-Pacific accounted for the highest revenue share of the global gems and jewellery market due to growing demand from countries like China, India and Japan. As a result, the global gems and jewellery market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of about 6% during 2014-19.

Cover picture :
Protection Feerique bracelet from the new Van Cleef & Arpels high jewellery collection "Peau d' Ane." The bracelet is of white and pink gold, with diamonds, carals, pink and violet sapphires, and one oval-cut sapphire.


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