For 2015, the National Institute of Development
Administration's GDP grownth forecast is 5.4 per cent. Domestic
demand is expected to rebound significantly. Public and private
investments are projected to grow by 8.0 and 11.2 per cent. Private
consumption is expected to increase at 4.6 per cent. This recovery
process is the result of an equlibrium adjustment. The delayed
investment projects and durable-goods consumption in 2014 will
come back in 2015 when the politial situation is stabilised.
"We expect export expansion in 2015 because
of improvements in the global market. The higher global demand
could increase Thailand's export value in 2015 by 6.8 per cent.
Next, we project Thailand's headline inflation rate to end this
year at 2.1 per cent, and reach 2.6 per cent next year. World
crude oil prices are expected to stabilise because of low demand
In addition, the baht is expected to weaken next
year to around 33-34 to the US dollar. In summary, the Thai economy
is expected to rebound in 2015 from the adjustment in the equilibrium
of consumption and investment. However, the global economic outlook
and recovery process of the US economy are currently the most
important risks to the Thai economy, which needs triggering factors
to pull away from the effects of the political crisis. Therefore,
the development of the world economy should be closely monitored
to prepare for unexpected shocks that may hinder the local economic
The Commerce Ministry reported that August
exports fell to a 32-month low as the weak global economy brought
lower-than-expected demand. Exports slumped 7.4% year-on-year
in August to US$ 8.9 biliion following a fall of 0.85% in July,
with shipments in the first 8 months shrinking 1.36% to US$ 51
billion. Imports fell for a 14th straight month in August, plunging
14.2% to US$7.8 billion.
The global recession and the Euro-Zone
crisis has had a huge impact on the consumer sentiment towards
jewellery, especially in North America and Europe. However, significant
grownth in the jewellery market was witnessed in developing regions
including Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Increasing demand
has been recorded due to growing per capita income levels in developing
countries such as India, China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the UAE.
The growth in urban population coupled with rising awareness about
different types of jewellery is expected to propel gems and jewellery
demand in these countries through 2019. Gold jewellery dominated
the global gems and jewellery market in 2013, in revenue terms.
However, during the forecast period, diamond, platinum and costume
jewellery are also expected to gain market share.
According to "Global Gems &
Jewelry Market Forecast & Opportunities, 2019", the United
States continues to be the largest gems and jewellery market worldwide.
The USA is also the largest global consumer of diamond jewellery,
However, regionally, Asia-Pacific accounted for the highest revenue
share of the global gems and jewellery market due to growing demand
from countries like China, India and Japan. As a result, the global
gems and jewellery market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of
about 6% during 2014-19.